War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".