A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
